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<article class="module module--detail--v3">
<section class="module--detail-content">
<header class="content--detail-header">
<figure class="content--thumb">
<img class="lazy" src="/news/parts16/images/common/noimg_default.gif" data-src="/news/html/20230125/K10013959571_2301251335_0125133627_01_02.jpg" alt="">
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<div class="content--detail-title">
<h1 class="content--title">
<span>「終末時計」人類最後の日までの残り時間1分30秒 過去最も短く</span>
</h1>
<p class="content--date">
<time datetime="2023-01-25T13:33:49">2023年1月25日 13時33分</time>
</p>
</div>
</header>
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<div class="nhk-snsbtn" data-nhksns-disable="google" data-nhksns-description=" "></div>
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<section class="content--detail-main">
<div class="content--detail-body">
<p class="content--summary" style="">アメリカの科学雑誌は「人類最後の日」までの残り時間を象徴的に示す「終末時計」について、これまでで最も短い「残り1分30秒」と発表し、ロシアによるウクライナへの軍事侵攻などを受けて、世界は前例のない危険な状態にあると警告しました。</p>
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<p class="content--summary-more" style="">アメリカの科学雑誌「ブレティン・オブ・ジ・アトミック・サイエンティスツ」は24日、アメリカ・ワシントンで記者会見を開き「人類最後の日」までの残り時間を象徴的に示す「終末時計」について「残り1分30秒」と発表しました。<br /><br />「終末時計」の発表は、1947年の「残り7分」から始まり、東西冷戦の終結後には「残り17分」まで戻されましたが、去年まで3年連続で「残り1分40秒」と最も短くなっていました。<br /><br />ことしは、これよりさらに短くなり「人類最後の日」までこれまでで最も近づいたとしています。<br /><br />理由については、ロシアによるウクライナへの軍事侵攻を一番にあげ、ロシアが核兵器の使用を示唆したことで、事故や誤算によって紛争が拡大するリスクがあり、紛争が誰の手にも負えなくなる可能性もあると指摘しています。<br /><br />また、ロシアによる軍事侵攻で、ウクライナにあるチョルノービリやザポリージャの原子力発電所から放射性物質が放出される危険もあるとしています。<br /><br />このほか、中国の核軍拡の動きや北朝鮮による核・ミサイル開発のほか、ウクライナ情勢の影響で気候変動と闘う世界的な努力が弱体化していることや、新型コロナウイルスのような感染症のリスクがあるなどと指摘し、世界は前例のない危険な状態にあると強く警告しました。</p>
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<h2 class="body-title">「終末時計」残り時間の推移</h2>
<div class="body-text">「終末時計」は、核戦争の脅威について警告しようと、1947年からアメリカの科学雑誌が発表しているもので、最近は核戦争のほかにも気候変動など人類にとっての様々な脅威も指標とされています。<br /><br />はじめて発表された1947年には、「人類最後の日」まで「残り7分」とされ、その後アメリカと旧ソビエトが相次いで核実験を行い核の軍拡競争が続いたことから、1953年にはそれまでで最も短い「残り2分」となりました。<br /><br />1960年から70年代にかけては、核軍縮を目指す国際条約の発効などを受けて針が戻された時期もありましたが、1970年代後半から80年代にかけて旧ソビエトがアフガニスタンに侵攻するなど再び米ソの対立が深まり、1984年には「残り3分」に戻されました。<br /><br />その後、冷戦が終結して核軍縮の機運が高まると、1991年には「残り17分」となり、「人類最後の日」がこれまでで最も遠くなりました。<br /><br />しかし、それ以降は北朝鮮やイランによる核開発などの核の脅威に加え、気候変動や新型コロナウイルスの感染拡大などを受けて「終末時計」の針は進み、2020年から去年までは3年連続でこれまでで最も短い「残り1分40秒」となっていました。</div>
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<h2 class="body-title">これまでの「残り時間」</h2>
<div class="body-text">1947年「7分」<br />1949年「3分」<br />1953年「2分」<br />1960年「7分」<br />1963年「12分」<br />1968年「7分」<br />1969年「10分」<br />1972年「12分」<br />1974年「9分」<br />1980年「7分」<br />1981年「4分」<br />1984年「3分」<br />1988年「6分」<br />1990年「10分」<br />1991年「17分」<br />1995年「14分」<br />1998年「9分」<br />2002年「7分」<br />2007年「5分」<br />2010年「6分」<br />2012年「5分」<br /><br />2015年「3分」<br />2016年「3分」<br />2017年「2分30秒」<br />2018年「2分」<br />2019年「2分」<br />2020年「1分40秒」<br />2021年「1分40秒」<br />2022年「1分40秒」<br />毎年発表し始めたのは、2015年以降</div>
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<h2 class="body-title">専門家 “ウクライナ侵攻が最大の影響”</h2>
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<div class="body-text">「終末時計」の残り時間を決めるメンバーの1人で、核軍縮や核不拡散の研究が専門のジョージ・ワシントン大学、シャロン・スクアソーニ教授はNHKのインタビューに応じ「私たちはことし、ウクライナでの戦争を通じてあらゆる分野を検討する必要に迫られた。戦争の影響が非常に広範囲に及んだからだ」と述べ、ことしの決定にはロシアによるウクライナ侵攻が最も大きな影響を与えたと明らかにしました。<br /><br />ロシアによって核兵器が使用されるリスクについては「ロシアが戦術的な目的で核兵器を使用しても、得られるものはほとんどないと思う。西側諸国にウクライナへの支援を思いとどまらせる試みも成功しなかった。しかし、私たちはロシアが核兵器を保有していることは留意しなければならない。核兵器の使用は賢明とも合理的とも戦略的とも言えないが、それを決めるのはプーチン大統領だ。したがってリスクはゼロではない」と指摘しました。<br /><br />さらに、国際的な核兵器の管理体制について「『十分に機能していない』と考える国も出てきて、核兵器を保有していた方が安全だと判断する可能性もある」と述べ、一部の国で核抑止力への依存が強まり、核兵器の拡散につながる可能性もあると、分析しました。<br /><br />また、去年8月に開かれたNPT核拡散防止条約の再検討会議で、ロシアの反対によって最終文書が採択されなかったことについて「核不拡散システムへの信頼が低下し、国家間の協力の意思が低下する可能性があり、非常に大きな打撃になる」と懸念を示しました。<br /><br />そのうえで、スクアソーニ教授は「戦争で核兵器が使用されるリスクを取り除くために、私たちは2倍、3倍、4倍の努力を続ける必要がある。核兵器が使用されれば、ウクライナだけの問題ではなく世界的な大惨事につながるおそれがある。このリスクを減らすために国際社会は協力して対処する方法を見つけなければならない」と強い危機感を示しました。</div>
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