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<h1 class="content--title">
<span>ことしの出生数 初めて80万人下回るか 国の予測より8年早く</span>
</h1>
<p class="content--date">
<time datetime="2022-11-10T19:46:23">2022年11月10日 19時46分</time>
<a href="/news/word/0000034.html" class="i-word">教育</a>
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<p class="content--summary" style="">1年間に生まれる子どもの数を示す「出生数」について、大手シンクタンク「日本総研」はことし全国でおよそ77万人と、国の統計開始以降、初めて80万人を下回る見通しになったとする推計をまとめました。<br /><br />ことし80万人を下回れば国の予測よりも8年早く、少子化が想定を上回るペースで進んでいることになります。</p>
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<p class="content--summary-more" style="">日本総合研究所は厚生労働省が公表していることし1月から8月までに生まれた子どもの数などをもとに、1年間の出生数を推計しました。<br /><br />それによりますとことしの出生数は全国でおよそ77万人で、前の年から4万人余り、率にして5％程度減少し、国が統計を取り始めた1899年以降で初めて80万人を下回る見通しになったということです。</p>
<section class="content--body type-bottom" style="">
<figure class="body-img">
<img class="lazy" src="/news/parts16/images/common/noimg_default.gif" data-src="/news/html/20221110/K10013886901_2211101539_1110182600_01_03.jpg" alt="">
</figure>
<div class="body-text">厚生労働省によりますと、出生数は1970年代半ばから減少傾向が続いていて、ことしも国内で生まれた外国人も含んだ8月までの速報値で52万人余りと、前の年より2万7000人余り減少しています。<br /><br />国立社会保障・人口問題研究所が2017年に公表した予測では、出生数が80万人を下回るのは8年後の2030年となっていて少子化が想定を上回るペースで進んでいることになります。<br /><br />推計を行った日本総合研究所は少子化の進行について、新型コロナの感染が拡大する中、結婚の件数がおととし、去年と、減少が続いていることが関係していると分析しています。</div>
</section>
<section class="content--body type-bottom" style="">
<h2 class="body-title">出生数の推移は</h2>
<figure class="body-img">
<img class="lazy" src="/news/parts16/images/common/noimg_default.gif" data-src="/news/html/20221110/K10013886901_2211101938_1110194000_01_04.jpg" alt="">
</figure>
<div class="body-text">出生数は統計を取り始めた1899年は138万6981人でした。<br /><br />その後、上昇傾向が続き第1次ベビーブームにあたる1949年には最多の269万6638人に上りました。<br /><br />そのあとは減少傾向となり、1960年代から1970年代半ばごろにかけて一時、増加に転じ第2次ベビーブームにあたる1973年には209万1983人に上りますが、その後は再び減っていきました。<br /><br />1989年は124万6802人で、1990年代は120万人前後で推移していましたが、2000年代に入るとさらに減少傾向となり、2016年には97万7242人とはじめて100万人を下回りました。</div>
</section>
<section class="content--body type-bottom" style="">
<h2 class="body-title">結婚の件数も減少傾向 来年以降も低下局面か</h2>
<figure class="body-img">
<img class="lazy" src="/news/parts16/images/common/noimg_default.gif" data-src="/news/html/20221110/K10013886901_2211101533_1110182600_01_04.jpg" alt="">
</figure>
<div class="body-text">厚生労働省によりますと1年間の結婚の件数も2000年代から減少傾向が続いています。<br /><br />最近では、2019年はいわゆる「令和婚」で前の年から増加し、59万9007組となりましたが、2020年は前の年と比べて7万3500組減少して52万5507組に、2021年は前の年から2万4369組減少して50万1138組と、戦後、最も少なくなりました。<br /><br />また、国立社会保障・人口問題研究所が5年に1回程度行っている出生動向基本調査では、コロナ禍の2021年の時点で「一生結婚するつもりがない」と回答した人が18歳から34歳までの世代で男女とも増加していることから、日本総合研究所は結婚の件数が今後も減少していくことが懸念されるとしています。</div>
</section>
<section class="content--body type-bottom" style="">
<h2 class="body-title">専門家「今後10年間は対策するうえで特に重要な期間」</h2>
<figure class="body-img">
<img class="lazy" src="/news/parts16/images/common/noimg_default.gif" data-src="/news/html/20221110/K10013886901_2211101539_1110182600_01_05.jpg" alt="">
</figure>
<div class="body-text">推計を行った日本総合研究所の藤波匠 上席主任研究員は、ことしの出生数が80万人を下回る見通しになったことについて「2015年の出生数は100万人を超えていた中、わずか7年で20％以上減少してしまうことになる。少子化が進むと国内の社会保障の問題や経済成長などにも大きな影響があると考えられ、対策は喫緊の課題だ」と指摘しています。<br /><br />そのうえで「1990年代の出生数は120万人程度と比較的安定していた時期で、その年代の子どもたちが20代から30代となってちょうど結婚や出産の時期を迎えているので、今後の10年間は少子化対策に取り組むうえで特に重要な期間になるのではないか」と指摘しています。</div>
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