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<span>日本周辺の“異常な雨” 地球温暖化で増加も 米NOAA分析</span>
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<time datetime="2022-05-10T05:21:54">2022年5月10日 5時21分</time>
<a href="/news/word/0000035.html" class="i-word">気象</a>
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<p class="content--summary" style="">過去およそ40年間の日本周辺の雨の降り方の変化を人工知能などで分析した結果、雨の量が極端に多かったり雨の範囲が非常に広かったりする「異常な雨」が西日本を中心に増え、その主な原因が人間の活動に伴う地球温暖化にあることが分かりました。<br />将来「異常な雨」の頻度は全国で増える予想となっていて、専門家は過去の経験にとらわれず備える必要性を指摘しています。</p>
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<p class="content--summary-more" style="">NOAA＝アメリカ海洋大気局、地球流体力学研究所の村上裕之研究員のグループは、AI＝人工知能とスーパーコンピューターによるシミュレーションで、近年の雨の降り方の変化と、地球温暖化との関係とを調べました。</p>
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<h2 class="body-title">“異常な雨” 西日本で顕著に増加</h2>
<div class="body-text">まず、1977年から2015年までの38年間の日本の降水データを人工知能に学習させ、雨の量が極端に多かったり範囲が非常に広かったりと、ふだんと大幅に異なるケースを「異常な雨」として抽出しました。<br /><br />その結果、全国の「異常な雨」の頻度は、1977年が6.1日だったのに対し、2015年は12.3日とおよそ2倍となりました。<br /><br />中国地方、四国、九州、奄美、沖縄の西日本で顕著に増え、2.7日から7.3日とおよそ3倍に増えていました。<br /><br />特に、梅雨前線が停滞しているときに台風が湿った空気を送り込み、大雨になるパターンが比較的多いということです。</div>
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<h2 class="body-title">背景に人間の活動に伴う地球温暖化 将来は全国で増加も</h2>
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<div class="body-text">さらに、この「異常な雨」の増加は、人間の活動に伴う地球温暖化が背景にあることも分かりました。<br /><br />スーパーコンピューターで、大気の状況と「エルニーニョ現象」など海水温の変化といった自然の変動を詳細に再現したところ、この「異常な雨」の増加は、人間の活動に伴う地球温暖化がなければ起きなかったということです。<br /><br />また将来「異常な雨」は全国で増えるとされ、その頻度は、2050年に年間およそ19日と、1977年のおよそ3倍になると予測されたということです。<br /><br />台風が強いまま日本に近づくことが増えると予想され、梅雨の末期、台風と梅雨前線による大雨の増加が見込まれるということです。<br /><br />村上研究員は「異常な雨に関して、地球内部の自然変動と人為的な気候変動を切り分けた実験はこれまでなかった。今後は、これまで起きたことのない雨が全国的に増えるおそれがあり、過去の経験にとらわれず災害に備える必要がある」と話しています。</div>
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